In the old days (a few years ago), technology advanced, but didn’t necessarily upend entire established industries. Today, AirBNB, Uber, and other innovators have not only brought in new ways of traveling, they’ve disrupted large, deep-rooted markets that no one imagined could be threatened. Such massive change also necessarily impacts the jobs that make those markets thrive. The definition of a taxi driver or hotel owner is much more inclusive, variable, and open now than it was before the disruption.
Given this trend, what can we expect in the next 20 years? It’s always difficult to imagine something that does not yet exist, but hopefully we’ve had a little practice, thanks to innovators like Apple and Tesla. The pace of technological and economic change is so rapid now that it doesn’t take a futurist to realize that we can no longer base expectations for the future on trends of the past.
The Fourth Industrial Revolution
We have entered what the World Economic Forum (WEF) calls the Fourth Industrial Revolution, defined by developments in fields such as artificial intelligence and machine-learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3-D printing, genetics, and biotechnology. This revolution, states WEF’s recent “The Future of Jobs” report, “will cause widespread disruption not only to business models but also to labour [sic] markets over the next five years, with enormous change predicted in the skill sets needed to thrive in the new landscape.”
According to the report, this disruption might cause a net loss of more than 5 million jobs in 15 developed and emerging economies by the year 2020. To be precise, a loss of 7 million due to technological advances, less a gain of 2 million due to specialization.
The WEF report is both forward-looking and realistic. It speaks of exciting new trends, such as smart systems that can help address far-ranging issues from supply chain management to climate change, and the blossoming of the sharing economy. But it also warns that no great change—especially economic and social change—comes about without its attendant challenges. It urges corporations and governments alike to prepare their workforces for a potentially volatile employment environment, especially those generations now in elementary and high school. In fact, the report expressly recommends “proactive adaptation” and the “reskilling and upskilling of workers.”
What we’ll lose, what we’ll keep, and what we’ll gain
Let’s take a deeper dive into the types of jobs we are likely to lose, as well those that are expected to gain momentum and importance. Expert opinions vary of course, but there does seem to be a general consensus that the high technology and healthcare/medical sectors will continue to be among the most robust as we move through the fourth industrial revolution.
According to Kiplinger’s analysis of data from EMSI, the CareerBuilder-owned labor market research firm, the ten most promising jobs include three tech jobs and five healthcare jobs: nurse practitioners, physical therapists, dental hygienists, medical sonographers, and health services managers. On the flip side, the ten jobs expected to go the way of the dodo bird include tailors, upholsterers, floral designers, and door-to-door salesmen. Not a single tech or healthcare job appears to be in danger here.
The robustness of tech and health care jobs seems perfectly logical, given the ubiquity of technology in almost everything we do these days, and the inevitable fact of growing older on the one hand vs. investing more in our health in our youth on the other. Yet some futurists think we’ll also see occupations of a decidedly more exotic flavor:
- Professional triber, whom companies will hire to put together high-performing teams on a project basis
- Virtual reality experience designer, who will help ‘keep it virtually real’ both at home and in the office
- 3D printer design specialist, to keep up with the ever-growing demand for 3D printing in manufacturing and prototyping
But even the “futurists” know health as a field will never ever go away. In their list of “Top Ten Jobs in Ten Years,” Fast Company lists no fewer than four health-related fields:
- Neuro-implant technician for all those mind-controlled robots and machines apparently set to make our lives easier (although that has yet to be determined)
- Remote health care specialist, to support everyone with any interest in their health, as well as to offload some of the load of health care workers caring for people with serious or urgent conditions
- Senior career, because life expectancy keeps rising and people want to lead quality lives well into their 80’s and 90’s
- End-of-life planner, whose job it is to help all those youthful elders reshape the definition of “senior years”
For us here at UBF, we’re not only watching all of these developments closely, we’re actively working with our clients to help them take that proactive stance the WEF report recommends. More importantly, we hope that our approach to a healthy and productive workforce, which has always been one of proactive prevention and a focus on health and well-being rather than reactive treatment of illness, will help promote and inspire scores of companies and organizations to adapt to a rapidly changing world.
Alan Wang is the President of UBF and serves as the lead consultant. He has delivered the UBF solution set throughout the world and is highly regarded for his areas of expertise. You can follow him on Twitter @UBFconsulting.